Donald Trump, A Wounded Ex-President

John Isaacs

February 14, 2021

Donald Trump, A Wounded Ex-President

At the beginning of the second impeachment trial, a friend wrote me: “I feel it will be an even bigger set-back when, after hearing and seeing all this, the Senate is still unwilling to convict Trump. I am afraid that the damage done by the perceived exoneration of Trump will be even greater than any ground that is gained through the very powerful and articulate House managers’ presentations.”

Of course, 43 Republican Senators did in fact vote to acquit the former President, with a vote of 57-43 lacking the two-thirds vote required for conviction. These 43 Republicans feared political retribution from Trump’s fervent supporters, just as House members who voted for impeachment have already experienced.

For faint-hearted GOP politicians without the courage convict Trump, no amount of facts or witnesses would have made a difference. To paraphrase Trump’s boast in 2016, “I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and hang Mike Pence and I wouldn’t lose voters.”

I would suggest that even though the Senate acquitted him, Trump has been severely damaged in the court of public opinion, including to some of the 74 million Americans who voted for him.

It was no surprise to almost anyone that the Senate would vote to ignore the evidence. But as the Wall Street Journal editorialized before the vote, “He might be acquitted, but he won’t live down his disgraceful conduct . . . Now his legacy will be forever stained by this violence.”

Peter Baker, writing in the New York Times before the vote suggested, “If convicting Trump is out of reach, managers seek a verdict from the public and history . . . In effect, if the Senate will not vote to formally disqualify him from future office, they want the public to do so.”

On this, the managers succeeded brilliantly. Speaker Nancy Pelosi appointed a superb team, even if Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Joseph Hawley and other Senators did not bother to listen.

The Magnificent Seven (1960 movie reference) Democratic impeachment team deserve a shout-out by name: Jamie Raskin, lead manager, (MD-8), Joaquin Castro (TX-20), David Cicilline (RI-1), Madeleine Dean (PA-4), Diana DeGette (CO-1), Ted Lieu (CA-33), Joe Neguse (CO-2), Stacey Plaskett (Virgin Island AL) and Eric Swalwell (CA-15).

There is ample evidence that Trump has been wounded by the manager’s strong case. Trump always brags he likes to be the first or best at everything; he has now succeeded in becoming the first President impeached twice.

Another Trump first: the seven Republican votes cast against him are the most ever by the accused’s own party. The 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach him is another record for the history books.

And you can be sure that the historians who rate Presidents will also note these facts. Those historians who rank Millard Fillmore at the bottom of American presidents for failing to act before the U.S. Civil War and note that Herbert Hoover flopped in dealing with the Great Depression will certainly place Trump in this humiliated group, if not at the bottom.

Let’s look at the politics of the situation. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) couldn’t bring himself to vote for conviction, but after the vote he gave a blistering speech that could have been delivered by the House managers: "There's no question, none, that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of the day."

The Republican leader, who despises Trump, clearly was signaling that Trump has been impaired, and the leader was pushing to further undermine him and encourage those who might bring suit against him in civil or criminal courts.

Earlier in the week, the first of the likely 2024 GOP presidential contenders. Nikki Haley, Trump’s former Ambassador to the UN and former South Carolina governor, broke with the President: “I think he’s lost any sort of political viability he was going to have. I think he’s lost his social media, which meant the world to him . . . He’s fallen so far.” As you might remember, the former President does not take kindly to any criticism, although without his prized twitter feed, it will be more difficult for him to strike out.

A number of Republican Senators who voted with the President also criticized him. Senate Minority Whip Thune, up for reelection in South Dakota next year, explained: "My vote to acquit should not be viewed as exoneration for his conduct on January 6, 2021, or in the days and weeks leading up to it. What former President Trump did ... is inexcusable."

Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) stated: “What President Trump did that day was inexcusable because in his speech he encouraged the mob, and that he bears some responsibility for the tragic violence that occurred. I have also criticized his slow response as the mob stormed the U.S. Capitol.”

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), who has tied himself closely to the ex-President, added "there's some support [for Trump] that will never go away, but I think that is a shrinking population and probably shrinks a little bit after this week.

Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD) opined, “I think the President’s actions since the election have been extremely disappointing. And not something that I have agreed with and not something that I ever want to see again.”

Republican voters, who still largely support the President, have begun to defect. After the January 6 insurrection, but before the trial, the New York Times found that nearly 140,000 Republicans had quit the party in 25 states that had readily available data. That is not a huge number, but in closely divided states such as Georgia and Arizona, those votes can make the difference. And of course even with 74 million votes, Trump lost the electoral count 306-232.

More evidence of Trump being damaged: an Ipsos poll taken for Reuters before the final Senate vote found that 71% of American adults, including nearly half of all Republicans, believe Trump was at least partially responsible for starting the assault on the U.S. Capitol.

Trump, after the vote, of course showed no remorse. He and his advisors are already talking about a heavy role in the 2022 elections, particularly targeting Republicans who crossed him. He has also intimated that he may try to become a second Grover Cleveland, the one President who lost re-election who then came back to win a second term.

His electoral efforts will continue to be a great motivating force for Democrats and divisive among Republicans. It is almost amusing to think how Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawly and Tom Cotton campaign for President in 2024 against a former President who they acquitted of wrong-doing.

One last sober warning for Democrats not to feel too giddy: After losing his race for President in 1960 and California Governor in 1962, "you don't have Nixon to kick around anymore, because, gentlemen, this is my last press conference."